September marked a bearish month for a lot of agri commodity lessons, with the S&P GSCI Agriculture Index declining 2.2 per cent MOM.
A powerful US greenback (+2.8 per cent MOM), alongside demandside issues, contributed to a lot of the weak spot seen this month.
However, supply-side dangers stay: El Niño continues to be a key issue to observe, notably for wheat, cocoa, sugar, and robusta manufacturing.
In the meantime, the market is protecting a detailed eye on Russia’s wheat export coverage, which stays unclear.
Funds are very brief throughout G&O markets, and this gives threat to the upside ought to any manufacturing points emerge.
For softs, the reverse is true: Funds are very lengthy, and we’re seeing a big threat premium priced in for potential climate points, which aren’t but a foregone conclusion.
Wheat
Russian wheat continues to dominate the export market, with preliminary seaport exports totaling practically 3.4m mt within the first 21 days of September.
A conservative estimate for the complete month of September could be round 4.4m mt, which might be 10 per cent above the five-year common.
Corn
The 2023/24 US corn season has formally begun, and its customers, not farmers, who’re reaping the rewards.
Corn acreage within the US continued its ascendant trajectory (94.9m acres) to the second-highest space on report.
Poor yields (172 bu/acre) are a distraction; the golden sea throughout center America ought to give feed customers monumental pleasure.
US corn manufacturing of 15bn bu will fulfill repressed international demand (+3 per cent YOY) and enhance reserves 50 per cent in addition.
Soybeans
The US soybean stability sheet is tight after sparse plantings and drought. Its shortage relative to grain, which is plentiful and low cost, is especially putting.
Nonetheless, final month CBOT Soy misplaced a few of its luster following the divergence of soy/grain fortunes that spurred a flurry of soy gross sales and pushed CBOT 6 per cent decrease to USd 1,292/bu.
Soybean costs are nonetheless about 10 per cent above the five-year common, however it’s evident that farmers, particularly in South America, intend to make hay whereas the solar shines.
Sugar
ICE #11 Sugar costs have elevated 4 per cent thus far in September, largely following the surge in Brent costs.
The upward motion was additionally accompanied by a big enhance in speculators’ internet lengthy place: Non-commercials went from 74,538 internet tons to 147,377 internet tons within the final CFTC report.
Espresso
Arabica futures traded with pronounced volatility in September, swinging from USc 160/lb earlier than declining to complete the month at round USc 150/lb.
The substantial value fluctuations witnessed this month can largely be attributed to issues {that a} current warmth wave in Brazil might have impacted crop growth.
These fears sparked speculator curiosity, and non-commercials bought over 15,000 internet tons over the previous 4 weeks, halving their internet brief place.
Dairy
The most recent International Dairy Commerce Worth Index elevated 4.6 per cent to USD 2,957 on September 19, representing the second consecutive biweekly enhance.
Skim milk powder recorded the biggest achieve, rising 5.4 per cent to USD 2,400, whereas anhydrous milk fats adopted carefully behind with a 5.3 per cent rise to USD 4,787.
The entire milk powder value index rose sharply (+4.6 per cent to USD 2,799), as butter improved by 3.8 per cent to USD 4,723.
The one product posting a decline was cheddar, falling 1.7 per cent to USD 4,044. The overall amount of dairy merchandise bought on the public sale reached 37,366mt, up 11 per cent from the prior public sale.
